The Market Crash we already had

Everyone keeps waiting for the “housing crash.” 📉

The reality is, we already had one.

It was called the transaction crash, and it started in late 2022.

Existing home sales nationally have dropped from over 6 million annually during the pandemic frenzy to roughly 4 million today, one of the slowest housing markets in nearly 30 years. 🏡

But a transaction crash does not automatically mean a massive value crash, especially here in Sonoma County wine country. 🌿

Yes, we’ve seen some softening in certain price points and neighborhoods, generally ranging from 1% to 8%, but that is very different than the 40% to 50% collapse some headlines continue to predict. 📊

Why does Sonoma County hold its value?

• Inventory remains far below 2008 levels

• Lending standards are significantly stronger 💪

• Most homeowners here carry substantial equity

• Millions of owners are locked into low interest rates 🔒

And this is not a cookie-cutter market. Buyers come here for the lifestyle, the land, the wine country access, and the proximity to San Francisco. That demand does not evaporate.

Even with this slowdown, most Sonoma County homeowners are still meaningfully ahead of where values were in 2020. 📈

In today’s market, success comes down to 3 things:

1. Proper exposure 🌎

2. Skilled negotiation 🤝

3. Correct pricing 🎯

This is a have-to market, not a want-to market. And in a market like this, who you work with matters more than ever.

TARA POLLEY

Sotheby's International Realty

707-799-2004